Thursday, October 21, 2010

Lets Be Frank

Well its come, Sarah Palin has endorsed Sean Bielat (via Facebook, of course) in his quest to unseat Barney Frank in the Massachusetts 4th Congressional District. This comes amidst reports that the race is heating up because Barney Frank is loaning some money to his campaign, and his current lead (between ten and twenty points, depending on the poll) is not as large as it should be.

Although I could be wrong, I tend to view this race as quite safe for Frank. His loaning the campaign funds is likely just a move to patch up some holes and not take anything for granted, not an act of desperation. Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver has this (as of October 20th) a 97.6% chance win for Barney Frank. Frank is also well above Bielat in campaign funds, and has a consistent lead.

I think the Bielat campaign will try to argue the "momentum" is shifting; as they should, it would be the smart thing to do politically and if he doesn't he should hire new media consultants. However I think the concept of momentum is a bit of a fallacy, (see Nate Silver again) and in any case its not likely he has enough time to close the gap. I could be wrong, and still remain shaken by January 2010, but I think all Democrats in Massachusetts are and are taking nothing for granted. I'm calling this race for Frank.

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